Topic Guide
What Is Historical returns?
Historical returns is a subject covered in depth across 1 podcast episode in our database. Below you'll find key concepts, expert insights, and the top episodes to listen to — all distilled from hours of conversation by leading experts.
Key Concepts in Historical returns
Pe ratio and future returns
This concept highlights the historical inverse relationship between the S&P 500's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio at the time of investment and the annualized return over the subsequent 10 years. The episode presents a JP Morgan chart illustrating that higher PE ratios at purchase correlate with lower future returns, implying that valuation significantly impacts long-term investment outcomes.
S&p 500 historical performance misconceptions
This concept addresses the common misunderstanding of the S&P 500's long-term average annual return. While the index has averaged 10% per year over 100 years, the episode points out that actual annual returns rarely fall within a narrow band around this average, suggesting that relying solely on the mean can be misleading about the market's year-to-year volatility and specific periods of performance.
What Experts Say About Historical returns
- 1.A JP Morgan chart from late 2024 shows a negative correlation between the S&P 500's PE ratio at purchase and its subsequent 10-year annualized return.
- 2.Historically, buying the S&P 500 when its PE ratio was 23 resulted in a 10-year annualized return between -2% and 2% without exception.
- 3.Howard Marks argues that this historical data on a PE ratio of 23 is crucial information for understanding current S&P 500 investment prospects.
- 4.Despite the S&P 500's 100-year average annual return of 10%, its actual annual return is rarely within the 8-12% range, highlighting volatility and the potential for misleading averages.